Global Warming Prediction Project

Global Warming Prediction Project

Prediction Scenarios World Oil Price

29.11.2010

We publish a model which predicts based on different scenarios the crude oil price from world oil consumption and total oil reserves till the year 2025. The data for this model are taken from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010. The fully functional simulation running in an Excel sheet can be downloaded here free to experiment with.

We show 3 different scenarios here: A more optimistic, a more realistic, and a status-quo based, apparently more pessimistic - not worst case - one (or is this the realistic one?).

Scenario 1 - optimistic

Assumption 1: The world oil consumption will decrease by 0.1 % yearly. Note, for

comparison, that the oil consumption has been rising at a rate of 1.4 % per year

in the past 40 years.

Assumption 2: New oil reserves of 10 thousand million barrels will be exploited every year.

The oil reserves are still slightly melting faster than the consumption is decreasing. So even in this scenario the era of oil comes - more slowly - to an end. The oil price is moderately rising within the ranges seen in the past. The remaining oil reserves in 2025 will last for additional 36 years.

Scenario 2 - realistic

Assumption 1: The world oil consumption will increase by 0.3 % yearly.

Assumption 2: New oil reserves of 5 thousand million barrels will be exploited every year.

The gap between remaining oil reserves and oil consumption is increasing every year. The oil price is expected to reach a basic level of $80 per barrel in 2016 and $160 in 2024 without considering other influences or events. The remaining oil reserves in 2025 will last for additional 31 years.

Scenario 3 - status quo

Assumption 1: The world oil consumption will increase by 1.0 % yearly.

Assumption 2: New oil reserves of 5 thousand million barrels will be exploited every year.

The outcome of this scenario, which is not worst case, seems unpredictable. In 2014, the average oil price per barrel will hit the $100 line and is exploding exponentially. This scenario assumes that the demand for oil can and will be satisfied to 100 %. If not, this would build a different case. The remaining oil reserves in 2025 will last for additional 27 years.

The bottom line is obvious: World oil consumption has to decrease from now...

If you are interested to check and try different simulations yourself download the Excel file or send us a message if you have questions.

Frank Lemke