Global Warming Prediction Project
Global Warming Prediction Project
Does current global temperature significantly depend on the oceans temperature in 1980 and before?
22.06.2010
We publish a set of 21 self-organized models used for the most recent monthly predictions (Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2012). They are implemented in Excel sheets so that you can not only view and analyze them but also get an idea of the complex interdependencies and dynamics between the different region models, and you can, for example, do what-if type predictions yourself right in the sheets.
These models are result of high-end knowledge extraction from data technologies, which means that the only source for the models has been the information inherently stored in historical temperature measurements. In other words, the models show what the - incomplete and therefore noisy - observed temperature DATA can tell us.
One most interesting finding is the very long memory of most of the influencial variables of the models both for land air and sea surface temperatures. They show that the current temperatures around the globe can be well described by the temperature of the oceans, especially, 360 months or more back in history (= 30+ years ago). So the state of the oceans in 1980 and before seems to have an major impact on today's climate in general. Other influences and relations are expected to exist, too, like green house gas emissions, or sun activity, but this data has not been used for these models (or has not been available to us) so such influences couldn't be expressed in the available models.
DOWNLOAD
View models and graphs (PDF 2.1 MB) - best for mobile devices
Full functional models in Excel (zip 4.6 MB) - best for desktop computers
Note: This is free copyrighted work.
The objective of this project is doing monthly modeling and prediction of global temperature anomalies through self-organizing knowledge extraction from public data. The project is impartial and has no hidden personal, financial, political or other interests. It is entirely independent, transparent, and open in results.