In the last decade, GCM climate models of type PMIP2/3 and CMIP3/5 has been developed and widely used in climate science.

In the past years, many of these models were tested by independent model data comparisons showing underperformance in all climate aspects, i.e., in temperature evolution, in global atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the Holocene, and in modeling the last interglacial and aeolian dust. This low model performance over past centennial time frames is a result of insufficient a priori knowledge of the internal workings of the climate system, which is characteristic of complex systems in general and which requires to make often unjustified assumptions about the system. A logical development now is that alternative climate studies increasingly appear.

In a series of short papers, Seifert and Lemke introduce and present four major, mostly cosmic climate drivers over the multi-millennial period of the entire Holocene. Using the GISP2 ice-core temperature series (Greenland Ice Sheet Project), each paper describes the specifics of a certain time frame of the Holocene starting from 8500 BC. A recent paper covers the time span 1600-2050 AD.

Abstract

The time span 1600-2050 AD covers the most recent of a total of 30 cyclic sine half-wave periods, which developed since the beginning of the Holocene. The first half-wave cycle commenced in 8108 BC, with a periodicity of 238 years. This cycle is a growing cycle, which increments by 6.93 years, as all papers of the Holocene Climate Pattern Recognition analysis demonstrate. The present periodicity of the cycle is 439 years long, starting within the Little Ice Age (LIA) temperature bottom trough, 1590 to 1640 AD, at 1610 AD, and rising to the Current Warm Period (CWP) cycle top at 2049 AD. This Holocene paper series additionally serves as a 10,000 year empirical confirmation of astronomical-physical calculations of the cyclic nature of the climate. We showed that well-defined, regular wave periodicities led us out from the 500 BC Homerian Minimum into the Roman Warm Period, into the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) cold period, then into the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), followed by the cold LIA and now into the present warm CWP with its peak in 2049 AD and, thereafter, into the return of the next cold future “LIA”. As in seven previous recognition papers before, which cover the entire Holocene since 8500 BC, our obligatory pattern recognition grid was placed onto this time span 1600-2050 AD. We provide a comparison of nominal cyclic half-wave temperatures to actual measured GISP2 and GISS temperatures. It is demonstrated that the sine wave motion is modified by pulsations of the 62-year cosmic Solar-Planetary Oscillation (SPO; in previous parts called SIM) cycle (with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as two observable oceanic temperature effects), which produces regularly spaced, consistent warm peaks along the entire Holocene. These warm peaks appear since 1818 AD in shapes of 4 upward moving staircase steps. The present staircase temperature peak is 2004 AD, from where on the flat step surface (today known as “The Pause”, “Hiatus”, “Plateau”) will persist until the year 2046 AD. The top of the sine wave temperature cycle is the year 2049 AD, from where on temperatures will enter into the 31st cycle, with a 439+6.93 year descent, until the future “LIA” temperature bottom will be reached. The final paper of this series, part 9, will cover the time span 2000 AD to the End of the Holocene. Such a forecast can be made, because existing five underlying cosmic, astronomical forcing mechanisms of climate change can be calculated.

The full paper can be downloaded free.